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Visite guidée au coeur des travaux du Meilleur jeune économiste 2012 (1/2)

Aux frontières des dynamiques économiques et démographiques

Le 28 mai 2012, par Matthieu Solignac

A l’occasion de la remise du prix du Meilleur jeune économiste à Hippolyte d’Albis, chercheur spécialiste d’économie démographique, RCE vous propose de partir à la découverte de ses travaux et constater la vitalité de ce champ, trente-et-un ans après la parution de l’ouvrage majeur de Gary Becker.

L’analyse des interactions entre dynamiques économiques et démographiques

Chercheur de l’université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (PSE-Ecole d’économie de Paris), Hippolyte d’Albis est un théoricien spécialiste de l’économie démographique. Traitant des influences réciproques que peuvent entretenir dynamiques de la population et dynamiques économiques, son travail vise notamment à intégrer les évolutions démographiques dans toute leur complexité au sein des modèles d’analyse économique.

Dépassant la prise en compte de la population à travers son seul taux de croissance, Hippolyte d’Albis s’efforce d’introduire ses caractéristiques précises et ses mécanismes d’évolution. Ce travail de décomposition est essentiel car de nombreuses conséquences de l’évolution d’un indicateur de niveau macro sont directement liées au sens et à l’ampleur des variations de ses composantes sous-jacentes. La même évolution de cet indicateur global peut appeler à des diagnostics extrêmement différents voire opposés. Ainsi, si l’augmentation de l’espérance de vie a un impact sur l’âge optimal de départ à la retraite, ses effets peuvent être inversés suivant l’âge auquel intervient cette baisse de la mortalité (H. d’Albis, S. P. Lau et M. Sanchez-Romero, 2012).

Une autre composante de la complexité des liens entre économie et démographie réside dans le fait que la situation économique peut également avoir en retour un impact sur l’évolution de la population : on parle alors du caractère endogène des phénomènes démographiques. Un de ses travaux traite ainsi de l’influence de la croissance démographique sur la croissance économique dans le cas où la fécondité est endogène (H. d’Albis et E. Augeraud-Véron et Schubert, 2010). De même, l’âge de départ à la retraite peut être en partie influencé par la situation économique (H. d’Albis et E. Augeraud-Véron, 2008, accès restreint). Dans le contexte du vieillissement de la population des pays développés, ce type d’analyse a de multiples champs d’application allant du financement des retraites, de la santé et de la dépendance au marché de l’immobilier en passant par la croissance économique et l’innovation (voir « L’économie politique du vieillissement » (RCE n°7, 2010, p.66).

La prise en compte de l’incertitude et le paradoxe du faible recours aux rentes viagères

Les travaux d’Hippolyte d’Albis s’intéressent aux interactions entre phénomènes économiques et démographiques tant à l’échelle de la société que du point de vue individuel. Loin d’être redondantes, ces deux approches sont complémentaires car si l’espérance de vie moyenne à un âge donné peut être assez bien connue et guider les décisions de politique publique, la date exacte de la mort d’un individu donné l’est beaucoup moins. Or cette incertitude est susceptible de générer des comportements particuliers, notamment en termes d’épargne individuelle. Par exemple, elle peut conduire à valoriser d’autant plus la consommation présente ou au contraire à épargner plus pour faire face à un risque de survie prolongée. Au-delà du niveau même d’épargne, le choix de son mode d’accumulation est également directement affecté par ces comportements (investissement immobilier, assurance vie, épargne retraite...).

Les travaux d’Hippolyte d’Albis abordent notamment le paradoxe que constitue le faible recours aux rentes viagères (annuity market participation puzzle). Les rentes viagères, en assurant un revenu régulier jusqu’au décès, permettent de ne pas supporter seul l’incertitude relative sa durée de vie restante. On s’attendrait donc à ce qu’elles soient massivement utilisées. Or c’est le phénomène inverse qui est jusqu’à présent observé. Comment expliquer ce paradoxe ? La motivation altruiste que constitue la volonté de transmettre un héritage est souvent avancée pour expliquer ce désintérêt malgré les réussites célèbres de vente immobilière en viager réalisées par Louis Martinet au cinéma et Jeanne Calment dans la réalité. Ce phénomène ne permet cependant pas d’expliquer l’ampleur de cette désaffection puisque même un individu fortement altruiste aurait malgré tout intérêt à y recourir en partie. Deux types d’explications sont alors avancés. La première met en avant les imperfections du marché des rentes viagères (au-delà des considérations morales avancées par Artus de Penguern...). L’autre s’intéresse aux facteurs psychologiques susceptibles d’expliquer le désintérêt qu’il suscite. La modélisation des comportements individuels proposée par Hippolyte d’Albis et Emmanuel Thibault montre que l’aversion pour l’incertitude de durée de survie peut suffire à expliquer l’absence totale de recours aux rentes viagères (H. d’Albis et E. Thibault, 2012).

L’évolution des travaux d’Hippolyte d’Albis et Emmanuel Thibault sur le sujet donnent l’occasion de voir une partie du processus de cette recherche. Avant de parvenir à la démonstration mathématique synthétique publiée en 2012 (H. d’Albis et E. Thibault, 2012), un premier article publié en 2011 a posé le cadre d’analyse et abouti à un premier résultat : l’effet potentiellement négatif de cette aversion sur le recours aux rentes viagères (H. d’Albis et E. Thibault, 2011). Enfin, un document de travail propose une approche plus économique de la démonstration, celle-ci étant intégrée dans un article présentant ses enjeux et discutant les conditions associées aux cas particuliers (H. d’Albis et E. Thibault, 2011).

Retrouvez très prochainement le second épisode de cette présentation sur le site de RCE (Visite guidée au coeur des travaux du Meilleur jeune économiste 2012 (2/2)). Il est consacré à trois aspects plus particuliers du travail d’Hippolyte d’Albis : sa contribution au développement des modèles à générations imbriquées, ses travaux de démographie appliquée et ses activités d’animation de la recherche.

En savoir plus : Site personnel d’Hippolyte d’Albis

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